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Thursday's bond market has opened flat as investors wait for tomorrow's major economic news. The stock markets are not showing much direction either with the Dow up 1 point and the Nasdaq down 8 points. The bond market is currently up 1/32, but we should still see an increase of approximately .250 of a discount point in this morning's mortgage rates due to weakness yesterday.

The Labor Department said this morning that 434,000 new claims for unemployment benefits were filed last week. This was a little lower than forecasts, but not enough to affect the markets or mortgage pricing.

Yesterday's FOMC minutes did give us some interesting insight to the Fed's current thought process and concerns. It appears that there is some concern whether more efforts will be need to keep the economy from stalling again. There was particular concern about the housing market and if more action will be needed to keep lending rates low. That could bode well for mor tgage shoppers since the last time the Fed announced they were buying bonds targeted at the housing market, mortgage rates dropped significantly. Another round of buying by the Fed could have similar results. I believe we will hear more about this option in the coming weeks and months.

Tomorrow's only relevant data is the big news of the week. The Labor Department will post Decembers employment figures early tomorrow morning. The Employment report is considered to be one of the most important monthly releases we see. It gives us the national unemployment rate, the number of jobs added or lost during the month and average hourly earnings, which is a key measure of wage inflation. Its results are expected to heavily influence the markets and mortgage rates.

The latest forecasts are calling for no change in the national unemployment rate, keeping it at 10.0%. Analysts are now expecting to see a decline of 35,000 payrolls from November's level with earni ngs rising 0.2%. If we see weaker than expected results, mortgage rates should improve tomorrow morning. However, stronger than expected readings will likely fuel a stock market rally and push mortgage rates higher.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Float if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Friday's bond market has opened relatively flat despite weaker than expected economic data. The stock markets initially opened well in negative territory but have since recovered a good portion of those losses. The Dow is currently down 12 points and the Nasdaq is down 5 points. The bond market is down 2/32, but we still should see an improvement in this morning's mortgage rates of approximately .250 of a discount point due to strength late yesterday.

The Labor Department gave us today's big news with the release of September's Employment report. They reported that the U.S. unemployment rate stood at 9.8% last month, as expected. However, the number of lost jobs was 263,000, exceeding forecasts of 180,000. The third important component of the report- average hourly earnings, did not rise as much as thought. Overall, this data is favorable to bonds, but we have not seen much buying this morning as it appears the recent rally may be running out of steam.< br />
The second report came from the Commerce Department, who said that new orders at U.S. factories fell 0.8% in August. This was much lower than the 0.5% increase that was expected and indicates that the manufacturing sector is weaker than many had thought. That is also good news for bonds and mortgage rates, but the employment figures were much more important to the markets than this factory report. Therefore, its impact on trading has been minimal.

Next week is pretty light in terms of economic reports, so look for the stock markets to influence trading and mortgage rates. Since the bond market has failed to rally around today's news, it may be time to take a conservative approach towards mortgage rates if still floating a rate with your lender. Look for more details on next week's events and recommendations in Sunday's weekly preview.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place with in 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.

Market update

Monday's bond market has opened up slightly despite strong stock gains. The stock markets are rallying with the Dow up 126 points while the Nasdaq has gained 41 points. The bond market is currently up 4/32, which should improve this morning's mortgage rates by approximately .250 of a discount point.

There is no relevant economic news scheduled for release today. Tomorrow starts this week's fairly busy calendar with the first release September's Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) at 10:00 AM ET. This Conference Board index gives us a measurement of consumer willingness to spend. It is expected to show an increase from last month's reading, indicating that consumers are more optimistic about their own financial situations than last month and more likely to make large purchases in the near future. This is bad news for the bond market and mortgage rates because consumer spending fuels economic growth. Analysts are calling for a reading of approximately 57.0, up fr om August's 54.1. If we see a larger than expected increase, the bond market should move lower and mortgage rates move higher tomorrow.

Wednesday's sole report is the final revision to the 2nd Quarter Gross Domestic Product (GDP). Since this data is aged now and the preliminary reading of the 3rd Quarter GDP will be released next month, I don't see this revision having much of an impact on the financial markets or mortgage pricing. It is expected to show a slight downward revision from the previous estimate of a 1.0% decline in GDP.

Overall, it is likely going to be a very active week in the markets and mortgage rates. The most important day will be Friday due to the employment report being scheduled, but tomorrow and Thursday's data can also fairly heavily influence mortgage rates. I would recommend maintaining contact with your mortgage professional the next several days.

If I were considering financing/refinancing a home, I would.... Lock if my closing was taking place within 7 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 8 and 20 days... Lock if my closing was taking place between 21 and 60 days... Float if my closing was taking place over 60 days from now... This is only my opinion of what I would do if I were financing a home. It is only an opinion and cannot be guaranteed to be in the best interest of all/any other borrowers.